UNA NETTA MAGGIORANZA DEGLI ELETTORI CHE VOTANO TRUMP NON CONCORDA CON LE SUE PROPOSTE DI POLITICA MILITARE E COMMERCIALE ESTERA, NÉ PER QUEL CHE RIGUARDA IL COMMERCIO INTERNAZIONALE, NÉ PER QUEL CHE RIGUARDA L’INDEBOLIMENTO DEI DISPOSITIVI DI SICUREZZA ATLANTICO E PACIFICO

Articolo firmato dall’Editorial Board, pubblicato dal New York Times il 7 novembre 2016    .
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Americans beaten down by the vitriolic presidential campaign can be forgiven for accepting the conventional wisdom that the country is irredeemably polarized, with divisions so profound as to make governing in the next administration even harder than it has been for President Obama.

Now comes new data suggesting that on foreign policy, at least, there is more consensus among voters than is normally thought. It offers some hope that Hillary Clinton, if she is the next president, could rally a majority of the nation around a common agenda. All bets are off if Donald Trump wins.

The data comes from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, which has conducted regular surveys of public opinion since 1974. The latest report, issued last month, divided respondents into four groups by political affiliation: Democrats, Independents and Republicans, with those who said they supported Mr. Trump broken out separately.

Mr. Trump’s supporters are far more anxious than other voters about the economic effects of globalization and about a nation that is becoming more multiethnic and multicultural. Eighty percent view immigration as a critical threat to the United States, compared with 67 percent of Republicans, 40 percent of Independents and 27 percent of Democrats, the survey found.

But on other issues, there are areas of convergence between Trump supporters and the others. For instance, 51 percent of Trump supporters want the United States to play an active international role, compared with 64 percent of all respondents. Although Mr. Trump’s campaign slogan is “Make America Great Again,” most Americans, including the candidate’s core base, already see their country as the most influential in the world.

One of Mr. Trump’s most dangerous positions has been to question America’s commitment to NATO and its alliances with South Korea and Japan. That is at odds with the vast majority of Americans, including 60 percent of Trump supporters, who want to increase or maintain the commitment to NATO and who believe that alliances in general are effective.

All groups cited international terrorism as the primary threat, with nuclear proliferation and North Korea’s nuclear program among other top concerns. Mr. Trump, by contrast, has glibly suggested that he wouldn’t care if South Korea, Japan and Saudi Arabia acquired their own nuclear weapons.

On immigration, most Americans, 58 percent, favor a path to citizenship for undocumented workers. Support for globalization — specifically, increasing economic connections with the rest of the world — resonates with 74 percent of Democrats, 61 percent of Independents and 59 percent of Republicans. Although Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton have criticized the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership, the survey found that 60 percent of all respondents, including 49 percent of Trump supporters, actually favor the trade deal.

The bottom line is that “this is quite a united nation when it comes to the main ways of thinking about foreign policy, why the United States should engage and how it should engage,” said Ivo Daalder, president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

That means that if Mr. Trump is elected and tries to effect many of the controversial and dangerous foreign policies he has espoused, he could run into serious trouble with his base, not to mention most other Americans. As for Mrs. Clinton, who is more in step with majority views, she would have an opportunity to forge consensus around the kind of bipartisan foreign policy that for decades has been the American way.

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